Focus Module Deciding Under Uncertainty
Let's do this together
When did you last make a decision that felt right and turned out wrong? What could you have noticed beforehand? Why do meetings so often produce the appearance of agreement instead of a judgement? How much information is enough — and when does gathering more become avoidance? And what happens to your thinking when a model hands you a plausible answer before you have formed your own?
Reflect
Recognise your own decision patterns — where you move too fast and where you stall
Learn
Cognitive biases, decision architectures, and the difference between risk and genuine uncertainty
Apply
Run a premortem, a decision record and a decision-rights map on a real open decision of your own
Training Topics
Risk is not uncertainty
- The difference between calculable risk and genuine uncertainty — and why confusing them is expensive
- When statistics help and when simple heuristics are the better tool
- Reversibility as a criterion: which decisions deserve effort and which just need to be made
How judgement goes wrong
- The biases that matter most in practice: confirmation seeking, anchoring, availability, sunk cost, overconfidence
- Why knowing about biases barely debiases anyone — and what works instead
- Calibration: how accurate is your “I am 90 percent sure”? We will test it.
Decision architectures
- Clarifying decision rights: who decides, who advises, who is informed
- Procedures that neutralise bias: premortem, devil’s advocate, independent estimates before discussion
- Decision records: writing down assumptions and expectations so that learning becomes possible at all
Deciding as a group
- How groups make judgement worse: information cascades, conformity pressure, the most senior person speaking first
- Meeting designs that produce dissent without damaging relationships
- When consensus is the wrong goal
Deciding with and despite AI
- Where models improve judgement: widening options, generating counterarguments, stress-testing assumptions
- Where they degrade it: plausibility mistaken for truth, anchoring on the first output, diffusion of responsibility
- A workable rule for when to ask the model — before, after, or not at all
Deciding under pressure
- Deciding with incomplete information and a running clock
- What to say when you do not know: communicating uncertainty without losing authority
- Reversing a decision without burning your credibility
Our Method
Our “Deciding Under Uncertainty” training enables a sustainable learning experience through these training and coaching elements:
- One training day
- Calibration exercise with individual debrief
- Work on a real, still-open decision brought by participants
- Case simulations under time pressure
- Models from judgement and decision research, filtered hard for applicability
- Workbook & documentation
- Exchange in a small, trusting group
Meet Your Trainers
Book Deciding Under Uncertainty
Sign up for one of our upcoming trainings through our website.
Want to know more first? Schedule a free consultation with us.
Upcoming dates for
Deciding Under Uncertainty
Currently we don’t have a date planned for this training.
Did you know?:
all of our Trainings are also available as
in-house Workshops.
Learn more →
Training Details
Investment
650 EUR +VAT per person
The price covers 1 training day, participant documentation, lunch, organic snacks and drinks
Number of participants: Maximum 15
Trainer: Felix Krahé, Josepha Kuhl
Language: English in Berlin
Location
“CrispyLoft”
Chausseestraße 116
10115 Berlin (Mitte)
Other Crispy Trainings
